Beat the 7% January Retail Drop: Why Referrals Keep Growth Alive When Sales Slow

Beat the 7% January Retail Drop: Why Referrals Keep Growth Alive When Sales Slow

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How advocacy keeps engagement alive when paid spend drops

As soon as December ends, many brands feel it. A sharp drop in traffic, slower conversions, and paid media costs that suddenly feel less efficient. For most e-commerce businesses, January marks a distinct slowdown after the festive peak.

According to the IMRG Online Retail Index, UK online retail revenue declined by 7% year on year in January 2024, with clothing down by 10.8%. (Retail Times) In the United States, retail sales fell by 0.9% in January 2025 from the previous month. (Barronโ€™s)

In that environment, brands that rely heavily on paid media become vulnerable. Higher CPMs, reduced consumer intent, and shrinking budgets make it harder to maintain performance. The strategy many overlook is Referral Marketing. Advocacy offers a channel that is not only more cost efficient but also more resilient to seasonal dips.


Why January Slows Down and Why That Matters

The drop in January is driven by several factors:

  • Consumers are recovering from holiday spending, paying off credit balances, and reducing discretionary purchases. (The Workshop Co.)
  • Promotional fatigue sets in after the constant barrage of holiday campaigns, making users less responsive.
  • Seasonal timing means many brands pause major launches or advertising campaigns while they plan for the rest of the year.

Because of this, many businesses see lower acquisition volumes and higher customer acquisition costs in Q1. Without a backup channel, this can quickly become a lost quarter.


Why Referrals Shine in the Slow Period

Referral Marketing is uniquely positioned to fill the gap when paid spend loses impact. Here is why it works:

1. Lower acquisition cost

When customers refer friends, the cost of acquisition shifts from media spend to advocate activation. A strong referral network means each new customer costs less to acquire.

2. Higher trust and stronger intent

Referrals come with built-in social proof. A friend telling you โ€œYouโ€™ll love this brandโ€ carries more weight than any ad. That trust means better conversion rates even when overall demand is low.

3. Continuous lifecycle value

Advocates become part of a brandโ€™s growth loop. They do not just convert once; they refer again. That compounding effect sustains momentum beyond the initial purchase window.

4. Platform independence

Referrals happen through private messages, social shares, or direct links. These channels are less affected by algorithm changes or rising ad costs. That independence matters when media efficiency drops in January.


What Weโ€™re Seeing at Soreto

At Soreto, we have seen brands use referrals to maintain growth during Q1 while competitors scale back. Across our clients, referral programmes consistently outperform paid acquisition in periods of reduced media spend.

Brands that maintained referral activity through January reported:

  • A 25 to 35% higher share rate in Q1 compared to their pre-holiday baseline
  • Improved customer lifetime value as referred customers shared again in later months
  • Lower retargeting costs because referral-sourced customers converted faster and required fewer paid touches

Because referrals create a network effect, brands that start early and continue through January are in a stronger position for spring growth.


How to Keep Referrals Active During the Slowdown

Here are key ways to sustain momentum and engagement when January hits:

  • Prompt sharing immediately after purchase: Use order confirmation pages or thank-you messages to invite referrals while satisfaction is still high.
  • Offer evergreen rewards: Replace deep discounts with sustainable incentives such as double-sided rewards, store credit, or early access.
  • Use messaging that fits the season: Frame the referral ask around discovery and sharing value with friends rather than urgency.
  • Leverage referral data for retention: Use referral data to identify your most active advocates and engage them with exclusive content or offers.
  • Keep visibility high: Even if paid campaigns pause, keep referral prompts live on your site, in CRM emails, and on social channels.

Why Advocacy Works When Ads Slow Down

Referral Marketing fills the engagement gap left by reduced paid campaigns. It keeps your audience talking, builds trust organically, and ensures that growth does not stop when budgets tighten. Unlike paid media, referrals are powered by people, not platforms, and they grow stronger with every share.

While ad performance drops after the holidays, referral engagement often increases. Customers who discovered your brand during peak season are still excited to share. That excitement, combined with an easy sharing experience, makes January the perfect time to turn buyers into advocates.


Final Thought

January is known for its slowdown, but it does not have to mean stagnation. By investing in advocacy, brands can transform the quietest period of the year into a launchpad for sustainable growth.

Referral Marketing offers lower costs, higher trust, and long-lasting impact. It keeps your brand visible, your audience engaged, and your pipeline strong when other channels falter.

Want to see how referrals can power your January performance? Book a demo with Soreto here and ask to see our January referral campaign brief and Black Friday email template built to sustain momentum into Q1.

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